Dans The New Financial Order : Risk In The 21st Century, Princeton University Press, 2004, Robert Shiller traite du risque dans la perspective d’une globalisation tellement « intensive » qu’elle s’empare de la totalité de l’existence. Pour ce qui est des individus, on étendrait la « gestion du risque » aux actifs généralisés que sont, outre le logement, les revenus attachés à une profession, sans oublier le patrimoine génétique qui, après tout, est bien notre actif le plus intime. Toutes ces informations sensibles seraient enregistrées et tenues à jour dans des bases de données personnelles (« comprehensive risk information database ») dûment protégées contre les intrusions. Les nations protégeraient leur PIB, face au risque de déclin industriel, par exemple. De même pour les revenus des ménages, contre les risques pesant sur les retraites. La notion d’assurance-vie prend ainsi tout son sens : au-delà même de la « fin de l’histoire », l’abolition du temps, par la réduction drastique de l’incertitude ? Conscient du caractère potentiellement totalitaire de l’entreprise, Shiller recommande une préparation psychologique (« psychological framing ») pour la faire accepter.*
In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society’s obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller’s admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ’’ordinary riches,’’ so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future.
Shiller describes six fundamental ideas for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to temper basic risks that have been ignored by risk management institutions—risks to the value of our jobs and our homes, to the vitality of our communities, and to the very stability of national economies. Informed by a comprehensive risk information database, this new financial order would include global markets for trading risks and exploiting myriad new financial opportunities, from inequality insurance to intergenerational social security. Just as developments in insuring risks to life, health, and catastrophe have given us a quality of life unimaginable a century ago, so Shiller’s plan for securing crucial assets promises to substantially enrich our condition.
Once again providing an enormous service, Shiller gives us a powerful means to convert our ordinary riches into a level of economic security, equity, and growth never before seen. And once again, what Robert Shiller says should be read and heeded by anyone with a stake in the economy.